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New research seems to show that Ukrainians are staying in Wales and across the UK after giving up on the idea of returning home, which could have a major beneficial effect on the economy as well as society as a whole.
As the war in Ukraine grinds on, and Vladimir Putin plays for time over a ceasefire, it appears that more than ever many households here temporarily now plan to stay.
According to a recent study by the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), a Ukrainian research group, only 43 per cent of the refugees worldwide plan on returning, versus 74 per cent two years earlier.
For many, what matters is not only when the war ends, but how, and prospect of a ceasefire without Ukrainian membership of NATO or the EU, along with continued Russian occupation of a fifth of the country, does not inspire confidence about the future of the country, and many Ukrainians fear Russia would attack again soon.
A Facebook (FB) support group proclaims: “This group has been created..to connect Ukrainians living in Wales. With the beginning of the full-scale war, the group started growing rapidly. We appreciate everyone’s support during these hard times. We are based in Swansea but we are welcoming people from other parts of Wales”, and it may now have to change its tactics as well as its masthead.
Immigrants and refugees such as these play a positive economic role far surpassing their small numbers.
The most recent census (2021) showed that:
- In Wales, Poland remained the most common country of birth outside the UK in 2021 (24,832 people, 0.8 per cent of all usual residents).
- The number of residents in Wales listing Romania as their country of birth increased almost fivefold (469.9 per cent) between 2011 and 2021, growing by 7,025.
Across the UK a decision by Ukrainians to stay could be a force for good in society, as figures reveal that past immigration has had a favourable impact.
Studies indicate that immigrants contribute significantly to the UK economy, with estimates suggesting that they add around £2.5 billion annually to the exchequer through tax contributions alone.
Recent figures show that migrants typically contribute more in taxes than they receive in benefits, resulting in a net positive impact on public finances.
According to the 2021 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), around 27 per cent of the UK’s startups were founded by individuals from immigrant backgrounds, showcasing the significant impact of these entrepreneurs on the economy.
Migrants also contribute through taxes, which support essential services like education, healthcare and infrastructure.
Immigrants often take on roles in sectors experiencing significant skill shortages. For instance, in healthcare, many immigrant workers serve as doctors, nurses, and support staff.
According to the NHS, approximately 16 per cent of its workforce is made up of international staff, particularly in areas with high demand for healthcare services and contribute to innovation.
Similarly, sectors like engineering, technology, and hospitality rely heavily on immigrant labour to meet operational needs and drive innovation. The construction sector has experienced a big influx of migrant labour, especially from Eastern European countries. These workers are vital for meeting the demands of infrastructure projects and housing developments.
Ukrainians are likely to prove as useful to Wales as previous waves of immigration if they stay.
Restaurants, hotels, and other service-based businesses depend on immigrants taking both skilled and unskilled jobs. Many establishments would struggle to operate without the contributions of foreign workers, particularly during peak seasons.
Then there is the benefit to Cardiff of immigration, which plays an important economic role in South Wales.
The Cardiff Capital Region is a major player in providing employment and wealth-creating opportunities.
It has a Gross Value Added (GVA) (a measure of wealth), of more than £25 billion and accounts for at least 51 per cent of the income generated in the Welsh economy.
The desired outcomes in the region from its many programmes of intervention (£734 million of which is ring-fenced for Metro developments with the remaining £495 million available through a wider investment fund), will have delivered over 20 years 25,000 new jobs, generated an additional £4 billion of private sector investment, and increased GVA by five per cent.
There could also be a knock-on effect for the Private Rental Sector (PRS) (which is a particular driver of economic growth in Wales, Cardiff especially).
So any decision by Ukrainians not to return to their homeland, could be a bad sign for the country.
But a good one for the places they stay…
The memories of our Editor, Welshman Phil Parry’s, astonishing decades long award-winning career in journalism, as he was gripped by the rare neurological disabling condition Hereditary Spastic Paraplegia (HSP), have been released in a major book ‘A Good Story’. Order it now.
Also on The Eye – how during 23 years with the BBC, and that 41 year journalistic career (when he was trained to use clear and simple language, avoiding jargon), for our Editor, Welshman Phil Parry, changes in official policy have always been central, and now this is underlined by news that actions by the Trump administration could be driving top scientists abroad, and Welsh universities may benefit.
