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During 23 years with the BBC, and in 41 years in journalism, a major factor has driven many of the stories covered by our Editor, Welshman Phil Parry – population growth. But new figures again show growth is slowing, and that global population could peak much earlier than expected, topping 10 billion in the 2060s. Then, it would begin to fall.
As a Bank Holiday read Phil explores this fundamental issue.
Journalists in particular know the importance of a key factor in society that drives many of their stories.
DEMOGRAPHY, or to be more precise, a growing or declining population.
For reporters population growth lies at the heart of an enormous number of stories.
For example, ones about families being forced into sub-standard accommodation because they were the only places available to rent?
Demography (population).
Overcrowding in housing leading to appalling examples of domestic violence?
Demography (population).
A stretched police force trying to monitor growing levels of crime in a large area, resulting in terrible mistakes?
Demography (population).
But now comes new figures which strike terror into the hearts of many world leaders, as well as providing a changing backdrop for journalists like me.
Population growth is slowing, and declining in relative terms at a record pace in a number of countries, with researchers now finding that by going into reverse it is doing something long thought impossible.
For example, Japan’s population is falling sharply, with a net loss of 100 people every hour.
In Europe, United States of America (USA) and East Asia, fertility rates have fallen sharply.
The populations of many middle or lower income countries are about to drop.
This is an extraordinary change. It was only 10 years ago that demographers were forecasting our numbers could reach as high as 12.3 billion, up from around 8 billion today.
For 50 years, some green groups have tried to save the environment by cutting global population growth. In 1968, The Population Bomb forecast massive famines and called for large-scale birth control.
Now we face a very different reality – population growth is slowing without controls, and wealthy country populations are falling, triggering frantic but largely ineffective efforts to encourage more children (note what’s happening in China or Russia today).
Earlier this year the consultancy McKinsey published a report on the “new demographic reality”.
It noted that a “first wave” of countries including USA, China, Japan, South Korea and all of Europe would see their working-age population shrink by about 340 million by 2050.
In Africa, though, it is different. The population there has grown rapidly over the past century and it consequently shows a large youth bulge, further reinforced by increasing life expectancy in most African countries.
The total African population as of 2024 is about 1.5 billion, with a growth rate of about 100 million every three years. The total fertility rate for Africa is 4.1 as of 2024, the highest in the world. Nigeria has over 206 million inhabitants as of 2020 and a growth rate of 2.6 per cent a year.
Generally, however, the picture is a grim one.
Longer lives and, especially, falling fertility rates, mean the “support ratio” of working-age people to those over 65 in several places has dropped from 7:1 in 1997 to 4:1 today, and by 2050 it will be just 2:1.
That is important for our leaders.
But also for journalists!
Phil’s memories of his extraordinary award-winning career in journalism (when demographic changes drove a lot of his stories) as he was gripped by the incurable disabling condition Hereditary Spastic Paraplegia (HSP), have been released in the major book ‘A GOOD STORY’. Order it now!
Tomorrow – why throughout that career Phil always knew that any journalist (especially an investigative one like him), should be up to speed with the law, so he looks on horrified at how next month one country will embark on a process to become the first in the world to elect ALL its judges…
