I predict a riot

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‘I must talk to my contacts to find out what’s going on!’

As our Editor, Welshman Phil Parry has written many times a free and independent media is essential, although this does not exist in many states around the world, and its ban in Iran is making it very hard to gain accurate facts of the protests there, and about the brutal crackdown by the authorities when it appears that many hundreds have been killed.

 

If anything underlines the importance of a free media, it is now in Iran which has been rocked by enormous protests, but where it is difficult to establish what exactly is happening.

26 year old Erfan Soltani was a victim of the clampdown in Iran – a human rights group has said they have never known a case move so quickly

We know that perhaps 2,000 people have been killed (according to one official) but even this figure may be on the low side, as the authorities tighten the screw of repression.

The protests were triggered by rising public anger over the skyrocketing prices of basic goods, but they also reflect the growing disenchantment among ever-larger sections of society with the Islamic Republic’s political system.

One brave demonstrator, Erfan Soltani, was reportedly to be executed today, and a human rights group has declared that they “have never witnessed a case move so quickly”.

But, frankly, it is very hard to find out the truth, although it is clear that events are moving quickly.

Hundreds have been killed in Iran – but what’s the true death toll?

Iranians are accustomed to losing access to phone and internet services during unrest, with the internet cut off during major protests in 2019, and in another big wave of demonstrations in 2022.

But the current blackout is worse than anything experienced before.

Cutting the internet has helped authorities in Iran

On January 8 internet connectivity fell to just one per cent of its normal levels, where it has remained.

That has left Iranians struggling to communicate with each other and to get news of the uprising (as well as the increasingly bloody crackdown), to the outside world.

It is a problem making a definitive judgment about the situation on the ground because Iran has successfully clamped down on information flowing out of the country.

The regime is well practised at severing its digital links with the outside world and it does so in several ways.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called anti-government protesters “troublemakers” who are trying “to please the president of the US”

One is to manipulate something called the Border Gateway Protocol, which determines how the global internet connects to the Iranian one.

Another is to look at the individual packets of data traveling over networks, blocking those associated with Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) which typically allow Iranians to access otherwise forbidden sites, while still allowing access to government ones.

Iran also operates a domestic internet, a state-controlled network, that allows it to maintain some services so that the country is not plunged into the analogue age even during blackouts.

There are plenty of more traditional methods of stopping free speech in Iran

But some VPNs, which appear OK, are thought to be run by the Iranian government as traps.

These are the modern versions of censorship, but there are plenty of other more traditional ones the rulers also employ.

A free and inquiring website like The Eye is not allowed (officially!) in Iran.

But it’s important…

 

Good reading material…

The memories of Phil’s astonishing 42 year award-winning career in journalism (when he was able to operate in a largely free environment) as he was gripped by the rare neurological disabling condition, Hereditary Spastic Paraplegia (HSP), have been released in a major book ‘A GOOD STORY’. Order the book now!

Tomorrow – how during that career of 42 years in journalism, Phil has often seen politicians avoid telling hard truths publicly because they are afraid of the inevitable economic dislocation, and facing bad headlines about families suffering, with this now put centre stage by disturbing news concerning economies around the world, including Wales’.