- A river runs through it part one - 17th August 2026
- Nigel Farrago - 14th August 2026
- Struck out - 14th August 2026
During 23 years with the BBC, and in a 42 year journalistic career (when he was trained to use clear and simple language, avoiding jargon), for our Editor, Welshman Phil Parry, it has always been vital to know the polling figures showing who is popular with the public, and who is not – and this is now highlighted by Andy Burnham becoming Prime Minister (PM) with the numbers apparently showing that Labour have gained a significant bounce from it.
You should always know whom voters like, and whom they don’t.
This may not equate to how GOOD they are, but it does give you an idea of how popular people are, with it being particularly important for politicians – which is pivotal in a democracy.
Andy Burnham has now moved into Number 10 with all eyes on his new cabinet (John Healey as Chancellor was an unexpected choice, but less surprising perhaps in the circumstances was Stephen Kinnock as Secretary of State for Wales), however attention should also be focused on the polls.
For example they showed that Gordon Brown was wildly popular at the beginning, then wildly UNpopular at the end, because he lacked a good political antenna (there are now moves to re-habilitate him),
His predecessor Tony Blair was seen almost to walk on water for many years, until the Iraq war made his legacy uncertain, and the polls reflected this.
HIS predecessor but one as Labour leader, Neil Kinnock (the new Welsh Secretary’s FATHER!) was hugely popular in Wales, but quite the reverse in the home counties.
Actually Neil Kinnock is interesting, because Mr Burnham made special mention of him in his Labour victory speech, and he was something of a model in his job as mayor of Greater Manchester.
Yet famously Mr Kinnock NEVER won a General Election (GE), so it could be argued that comparing yourself to him, is comparing yourself to a loser!
Even so, from studying opinion poll figures, it is clear that Labour is enjoying an uplift in fortunes with Mr Burnham at the helm, because he is more popular than Sir Keir Starmer (a low bar), but he also has better ratings than the outgoing Prime Minister (PM) did two years ago, when he came to power.
Labour MPs always hoped this would be the case, and that by picking Mr Burnham to replace Sir Keir they can clean the slate after two troubled years in power.
Sir Keir squandered the political capital he had at astonishing speed, with a series of u-turns and reinventions that voters hated.
Though Mr Burnham’s popularity might be equally short-lived, the data suggest that the new Labour leader could build a more enduring electoral base by uniting the UK’s fragmented centre-left voters.
For example, in one survey of 5,070 Britons conducted by Stack Data Strategy between July 7 and 14, voters were asked which party they would vote for if an election were held tomorrow.
They then repeated the question, asking respondents to consider how they would vote if Mr Burnham were leader of the Labour party and PM – the effect was to add 2.1 percentage points to Labour’s vote share (a small but meaningful improvement).
According to another, by YouGov, Mr Burnham has a net favourability rating of +20 points among Green supporters and +21 among Liberal Democrats, compared with -62 among Reform supporters.
The same voters gave Sir Keir ratings of -47, -14 and -92, respectively.
Rather like Mr Blair, Mr Burnham’s PM speech was long on vacuous phrases, but short on real policy aims, because (presumably) he doesn’t want to be held to account if he fails to achieve them.
For instance, according to advisers who fed the media, Mr Burnham would pledge to bring “stable and responsible” politics to the UK (motherhood and apple pie anyone?!), and say that he is “acutely conscious” of being the latest in a long line of leaders to walk through that famous black door.
He was to describe the moment as one of “reflection and resolution”, and say that Britain needs to be honest about the challenges it faces while showing that it can “once again be recognised around the world for effective government”.
This political stability, he would argue, must deliver tangible improvements to people’s lives, and he was to promise to “give Britain more breathing space” – this is a phrase which echoes Sir Keir’s pledge at the start of HIS premiership to “tread more lightly on your lives”.
All of which, many might suggest, is just a series of vapid WORDS!
It is highly unusual, because like Mr Brown before him, he was long seen as the hot favourite, so he has secured the Prime Ministership (PM) without another candidate standing against him, and is preparing to name his cabinet.
At an event in London, it was Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood (widely speculated as a contender for a top post in that cabinet), who made the declaration of his party leadership.
It is also unique for it to happen only two years into a parliament, where the incumbent has swept to power with a thumping majority of 411 MPs, and onlookers fear that this bizarre event could further undermine voter disillusionment, with it making unfortunate headlines in UK newspapers, such as “Who voted for Burnham?..” in The Times, and “…we want an election now (emphasised)“ in the Mail on Sunday (MoS).
Mr Burnham took over from Sir Keir as Labour leader on Friday, after winning the support of the party’s MPs, and then moving in to 10 Downing Street, meant he was the UK Prime Minister (PM), becoming the SEVENTH PM in the last 10 years!
The process that we have seen MANY times, began with Sir Keir meeting King Charles to offer his resignation formally as PM, with the King meeting Mr Burnham soon afterwards.
This is an extraordinary rise.
Mr Burnham had only returned to Parliament just over a month ago in a by-election, with his victory convincing many Labour MPs he was the right candidate to replace Sir Keir.
But critics fear that his taking over as PM, will further hasten an already steep decline in voter turnout at elections.
In 1945 the turnout figure was 83.9 percent, but at the 2024 one it was about 60 percent, the lowest since 2001, when it was 59.4 percent. This 2024 figure came even after the drama of Brexit, and the extraordinary spectacle of witnessing ministers, as well as PMs come and go.
Other senior Labour figures (such as centrist one-time UK health secretary Wes Streeting), abandoned their own leadership ambitions and got behind Mr Burnham, along with the overwhelming majority of the party’s MPs.
Mr Burnham has also made plenty of promises in relation to spending, but could be unable to implement many of them, because the UK is in such deep financial trouble, and this, too, may endorse the view among voters that there is little point in trudging to the polling booth, as nothing changes.
Mean wages have grown by just one per cent in real terms since 2024, and by a paltry 4.5 per cent since April 2008 (a third as quickly as American wages).
More trouble could lie ahead too, if Artificial Intelligence (AI) displaces the legions of white-collar knowledge workers who make up the UK economy’s backbone.
Low growth is also bad for the ailing public finances.
Public spending has risen from 39 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2019-20 to 45 per cent today.
An ageing population and rising defence commitments could push it higher still, with tax revenues (37 per cent of GDP) struggling to cover Mr Burnham’s largesse.
Nor will greater borrowing help, because debt interest this year will cost £109 billion (more than the education budget), and bond investors charge the UK higher interest rates than any other big rich country, so they jump at the slightest hint of profligacy.
Since warning last year that we are too “in hock” to the bond markets, Mr Burnham has toned things down a little – suggesting that he supported the UK Government’s current fiscal rules and would have a plan to get debt down.
By their nature, the rules (self-imposed limits on borrowing and debt), are a straitjacket worn by successive administrations to reassure those in the £2.9 trillion market for UK government debt that Britain is a safe bet.
All of which is emphasised by the figures, so Mr Burnham should study them, and not simply look at the polling numbers now which show that his party may be doing all right for now.
The reality will soon hit home – give those favourable polling statistics a few weeks!
The memories of Phil’s extraordinary decades long award-winning career in journalism (when the turnover of senior political leaders was nothing like as great as today in the beginning), during which he was gripped by the rare neurological disabling condition Hereditary Spastic Paraplegia (HSP), have been released in a major book ‘A Good Story’. Order it now.
Tomorrow, more on our new PM, and how the backlash has already begun – with huge concern raised now about Mr Burnham’s attitude towards media freedom, the importance of which Phil has written many times
