- More poll to poll - 20th October 2026
- War games part two - 20th October 2026
- Poll to poll - 19th October 2026
During 23 years with the BBC, and a 43 year journalistic career (when he was trained to use clear and simple language, avoiding jargon), for our Editor, Welshman Phil Parry, polling numbers and political stories have often dominated, and today one of the biggest of all again hits the headlines, as votes are counted in the referendum for Alberta to secede from Canada, and the independence movement in Wales will have been watching closely.
It seems clear even now that the remain camp has won a resounding victory, and the Prime Minister (PM) Mark Carney (who opposes separation) says the people of Alberta have made a “clear choice”.
But the separatist camp is declaring a victory of its own. “We’ve started something and we are not going to stop”, is still their rallying cry.
They’ve gone from a fringe movement to being on the ballot, and will continue to argue that their demands can only be met if Alberta is independent.
Mr Carney is riding high in surveys, because he has stood up to Donald Trump, whose own approval ratings are grim.
Here then is The Eye’s story from yesterday, about this extraordinary situation.
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This referendum so far away is highly significant because it could set a precedent for states or nations, other than Quebec or Scotland (Wales?) breaking away from a more powerful country – with some believing nationalism is wrong, whether it is big or small, and that it is important to stay part of a successful union, while others think small is beautiful, and Wales should have the courage of its convictions, so two fingers should be put up to bullying England.
The Canadian Prime Minister (PM) Mark Carney (who obviously wants to keep his country intact), has high approval ratings (unlike Mr Trump himself) because he is getting credit for having stood up to his much more powerful neighbour.
Under Mr Carney, today’s referendum may not succeed, and Canada is doing markedly better than you might expect.
in the latest CNN poll of polls, 65 per cent of people disapprove of him, while just 35 per cent approve.In one for PBS News/NPR/Marist, Mr Trump’s approval rating was the lowest its been in his second term, and continues a downward trend since March 2025, when 45 per cent approved. Sixty-four percent of independents say they either disapprove or strongly disapprove of his performance in office, and 18 per cent of Republicans say the same.
Another, conducted less than four weeks before Election Day, indicated that registered Democratic voters are showing higher enthusiasm for voting than their Republican counterparts.
More respondents favour Democratic control of Congress and hold a distinctly negative view of the Republican Party. Inflation is high (in American terms), and the war against Iran is unpopular. Voter dissatisfaction extends directly to Mr Trump and his policy management.
Only about one-third of registered voters hold a ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ favourable opinion of Mr Trump, with a matching proportion approving of his job performance – in other words most people don’t like him or what he’s doing.
So whatever you think of him (and it is clear that most are in the critical camp now), Mr Carney has reason to thank him.
Some Albertans today may too…
The memories of Phil’s astonishing, decades long award-winning career in journalism (when polling numbers were often paramount), as he was gripped by the rare neurological disabling condition Hereditary Spastic Paraplegia (HSP), have been released in a major book ‘A Good Story’. Order it now.
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Even Albertans who told me they would vote to remain say they can’t continue to subsidise the rest of Canada with their oil wealth, without their own grievances including immigration and provincial powers being addressed.
Alberta is not alone on that. The rising cost of living and a housing crisis are biting across this country.
Canada confronts the same economic and social problems facing nations the world over – but it’s also in a trade war with the US, its biggest partner, which, if not resolved, will keep intensifying that pain.
