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During 23 years with the BBC, and 42 years in journalism (when he was trained to use clear and simple language, avoiding jargon), our Editor Welshman Phil Parry has always identified critical political ramifications from major events, and this is now highlighted by the incredible strikes on Iran.
People tend to forget that the ripples from hugely important events can be felt around the world.
We shall see soon whether the extraordinary strikes on Iran, will affect the midterm elections in America, or even voting for the newly expanded Welsh Parliament/Senedd Cymru (WP/SC) – both this year.
Because the hits on Iran, as well as the decapitation of its leadership, were carried out by populist leaders, in the shape of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu will they help or hinder right wing parties during forthcoming elections?
Perhaps they will be viewed as successful, and lauded by right wing Republicans in the midterms, as by Reform UK in elections to the WP/SC.
Apart from killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, Israel Defence Forces (IDF) say they have also killed Sayed Yahya Hamidi, Iran’s Deputy Minister of Intelligence for Israel Affairs, and have declared that Jalal Pour Hossein, head of the espionage division at the Ministry of Intelligence (MoI), was also killed, along with other “regime officials”.
Mr Trump could have had in the back of his mind how, if this gamble succeeds, it might help him politically at home.
He has to lift an incredible sag in the polls.
A January poll from The Economist and YouGov survey found that 57 percent of US citizens disapproved of Mr Trump’s job performance, while only 39 percent approved.
A separate Reuters-Ipsos poll from the same month showed similar results, with 59 percent of respondents disapproving of Mr Trump’s tenure so far.
Mr Trump and his allies have acknowledged their steep odds in this year’s midterm elections, gesturing in their remarks to the midterm curse.
“Sitting presidents don’t seem to do well in the midterms. I guess, over a 50-year period, they won twice, so I don’t know what that is”, he told reporters on Air Force One.
Conservative voters could be attracted by his ‘might is right’ strategy. The YouGov poll found conservative leaning people overwhelmingly approved of him, at a rate of 82 per cent.
A mid-January CBS News survey found an even higher approval rating — 90 percent — among US adults who identify as Republicans.
On the other hand, the oil price has already gone up, and it may go up further, which could prompt inflation, hitting voters in the pocket.
Incumbents are invariably punished at the ballot box in those circumstances, and Republicans may be less keen to endorse Mr Trump, so Democrats might win a majority in the House of Representatives (HoR).
If, as many believe, the conflict drags on, it could be viewed as a bad policy generally, so may not help other right wing parties eyeing a seat in the WP/SC, such as Reform UK.
Elections here are not far away (in May), and in an expansion from 60 to 96 seats, there will be more Proportional Representation (PR) so smaller parties will be boosted, but bad headlines might knock them off course.
Therefore the jury is out, both politically as well as militarily.
History tells us an initial euphoria over extreme military action can soon evaporate, and the repercussions at the ballot both in America and Wales could be significant.
Phil’s memories of his extraordinary award-winning career in journalism (including major stories like these) as he was gripped by the rare incurable disabling condition Hereditary Spastic Paraplegia (HSP), have been released in an important book ‘A GOOD STORY’. Order it now!
Tomorrow – how a complaint received by the outgoing head of the BBC Tim Davie about the standard of its drama output, once again highlights the corporation’s REFUSAL to answer The Eye’s questions concerning the string of scandals which have engulfed the giant corporation.
