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Major political stories, whether in Wales or around the globe, have always been central for our Editor, Welshman Phil Parry, and this is now underlined by the astonishing news that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known simply as ‘Lula’, defied the odds to be re-elected as Brazil’s president, winning almost 52 per cent of votes and beating Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of a coup-mongering former president.
Lula’s victory is extraordinary – since Brazil returned to democracy in 1985, no candidate who lost the first round has ever won the run-off.
This astonishing upset outshines, a former UK Cabinet member not even securing a job in the top team of the new First Secretary (FS), as devolution began in Wales (a major event in Welsh politics).
Ron Davies, who played a pivotal role in achieving devolved power, and had been Secretary of State (SoS) for Wales, failed to get a place in the Cabinet unveiled by the newly-elected FS Alun Michael, his successor as Welsh Labour (WL) leader in May 1999.
Famously, all other Welsh party leaders walked out of the BBC radio car, as they prepared to be interviewed by our Editor, Phil Parry, because they believed the interview with Mr Davies on this subject was too long (another significant political event).
However, despite Lula’s incredible victory (when social media was used extensively this time), it is clear that in the first round of voting, a worldwide issue has been emphasised – the number of people who are not voting at all, and here we republish our article, highlighting this fact.
“This is unbelievable..” During 23 years with the BBC, and in a 43 year journalistic career (when he was trained to use clear and simple language, avoiding jargon), for our Editor, Welshman Phil Parry, monitoring societal shifts has always been paramount, and one above all is obvious today – the number of people who can’t be bothered to vote!This is now highlighted by the first round of elections in the giant country of Brazil, where the number of abstentions was at its highest level since 1998.
There is little doubt about it – people aren’t voting.
Flávio and Lula are at opposite ends of the political spectrum This is a global phenomenon (and Wales is not immune), which has been underlined by last week’s first round elections in Brazil.
Perhaps it’s something to do with voter disenchantment with politicians.
In Brazil for instance both front runners (Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva), are highly controversial figures, but far from exciting voters, this seems to have turned off the electorate, and abstention rates in the first round of elections there, were at their highest level in 28 years.
Jair Bolsonaro threatened to punch a reporter in the face, and was jailed after a failed coup attempt All signs point to a victory overall for Flávio (who’s father Jair was imprisoned after a failed coup attempt), as since Brazil returned to democracy in 1985, no candidate who lost the first round of the election has won the run-off.
In Minas Gerais, Brazil’s most important swing-state and a bellwether for the country, Flávio won by five percentage points.
Flávio Bolsonaro is hugely popular in Brazil – but many didn’t vote The Bolsonaro Liberal Party more than doubled its seats in the Senate, to 28 out of 81. It also cemented its position as the biggest party in Brazil’s notoriously fragmented lower house, while almost none of Lula’s allies won new Senate seats or governorships.
They did not attend a single television debate, and interest in the election generally, was low.
Over 33 million of 158 million eligible voters did not bother to turn up, and in polls the week of the ballot almost a third of voters said they did not know whom they would choose.
“It’s about choosing the lesser evil”. Outside one polling station in an upmarket neighbourhood of Rio de Janeiro, one gloomy-faced 24-year-old described the election as having “a funeral atmosphere”, and his friend said: “It’s about choosing the lesser evil”.
It’s no better here.
In UK General Elections (GE) turnouts have been on a downward trajectory over many years, with slight blips.
2001 saw the lowest voter turnout since records began – hitting below the 60 per cent mark for the first time.
Turnout is on a downward path Turnout, defined as the proportion of registered voters who cast valid votes, was the second-lowest at the last GE in a century, at just under 60 per cent.
In Wales turnout was even worse at just 56 per cent, 11 percentage points lower than in 2019 and the lowest for at least a century.
In the constituency of Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney it was a measly 43 per cent.
Yet in the past it has been VERY different.
At the 1951 GE the UK turnout figure was 82.6 per cent, and even higher in Wales at 84.4 per cent. There was a huge fanfare over the fact that at the last election to the Welsh Parliament/Senedd Cymru (WP/SC), turnout was over half the electorate.This, for example, was the Electoral Commission (EC): “Voters in Wales turned out in record numbers for the 2026 Senedd election and remain highly satisfied with the voting process, according to new research published by the Electoral Commission. Turnout, at 51.7%, was the highest recorded at any Senedd election and the first time it exceeded 50%…”.
However this still left about 1,178,000 people or 48.4 per cent of the electorate, who did not vote at all! Even in the past the turnout for the WP/SC has been nothing to write home about, despite what commentators have said.In the 2021 WP/SC election, for instance, the voter turnout rate was just 47 percent (in other words MOST couldn’t be bothered to vote at all).
Good reading material! Yet this was described by Statista as an “increase of 1.3 percent compared with 2016”.
So it’s obvious that we need to look beyond headlines like these, and see the downward trend generally – the results in Brazil only underline this fact…
The memories of Phil’s astonishing, decades long award-winning career in journalism (when at the beginning voter turnout was much higher) as he was gripped by the rare neurological disabling condition Hereditary Spastic Paraplegia (HSP), have been released in a major book ‘A Good Story’. Order it now.
Tomorrow – worrying news that Russia is extending its influence even into Africa, with a gathering later this week of African leaders in Moscow, highlights once again how The Eye (although small), is also seen as a way to gain influence so has been targeted.
At the 1951 GE the UK turnout figure was 82.6 per cent, and even higher in Wales at 84.4 per cent. There was a huge fanfare over the fact that at the last election to the Welsh Parliament/Senedd Cymru (WP/SC), turnout was over half the electorate.
However this still left about 1,178,000 people or 48.4 per cent of the electorate, who did not vote at all! Even in the past the turnout for the WP/SC has been nothing to write home about, despite what commentators have said.
